(Nov. 3, 2008) – As the final week of the season winds down for AA teams and Stone Bridge starts its AAA Division 5 state title defense, for the second straight year there are at least four Loudoun teams in the playoffs and possibly a fifth if Loudoun County can defeat Heritate this Friday and get a little help.
Briar Woods (Division 3), Broad Run (Division 4), Potomac Falls (Division 4) and Stone Bridge (Division 5) are in. Here is how Loudoun County can make it. While some media outlets are reporting that a LC win puts them in … hold onto your Raider Riot … Louisa County can still make the playoffs depending on the outcome of other games ranging from Martinsburg WV vs. Eastern View to Spotylvania vs. Chancellor.
We consulted the LPS Ratings Guru for this … after AAA finished on Friday he took off for the Bahamas but we got this text from the Good Doctor:
How Loudoun County edges out Louisa for the fourth and final spot in AA Division 4 in Region II:
Loudoun County starts the week with 206 VHSL ratings points (that by which teams qualify for the playoffs if they don’t win district titles).
Louisa starts the week with 215 points.
LC plays Heritage. A win would give the Raiders +20 for beating a AA team and then +12 bonus points (2 points for each of Heritage’s six wins … stay awake class!)
That puts LC at 238. LC will get at least three more points as there are three Dulles match-ups that pit teams that have beaten LC vs. teams LC has beaten. Since teams get a point for a win from a team they lost to, then LC would earn a point each if Broad Run beats Park View, Potomac Falls beats Dominion and Briar Woods beats Freedom. That is +3 or a total of 241.
(Musselman WV and James Wood are done so no bonus points for LC).
Remember that number … LC can do no worse than 241.
But they can do better. If Handley beats Brentsville (likely) then add a point. 242.
Any upsets in the Dulles? Add a point if Dominion, Freedom or Park View win Friday. Or anywhere from 243 to 245.
So, LC, with a win will finish no worse than 241 and could go as high as 245.
Now to Louisa. The Lions with a win over winless William Monroe would bet +20 but no bonus so that puts them up to 235.
Like LC, Louisa has some points coming either way from games that feature a team they have beaten vs. a team they lost to. There are two games like that. Monticello vs. Charlottesville and Orange vs. Fluvanna. Give Louisa two ponts for the favorites winning. That gives them 237.
Still four points shy of LC. But, wait, Louisa has four other past opponents still playing, three of them, they beat: Eastern View, Spotsylvania and Powhatan. And one opponent, they lost to: Courtland.
If Courtland (7-2) wins against James Monroe (8-1). Add a point. 238.
If Eastern View (7-2) wns vs. Martinsburg WV (7-2). Add two points. 240.
If Spoty (2-7) wins vs. Chancellor (9-0). Add two ponits. 242.
If Powhatan (8-1) wins vs. Brunswich (7-2). Add two points. 244.
Whew.
And if there are upsets in district, Charlottesville or Fluvanna winning, add one or two more points. 245 or 246.
So Louisa, with a win, can finish no worse than 237 and could go as high as 246.
If Monticello and Orange win Friday as we expect and if Handley wins, as we expect … then LC is at 242 and Louisa is at 237. If Chancellor wins as we expect then Louisa would need Courtland, Eastern View and Powhatan to all win … giving them five points to reach 242. Whew …
Of course, Heritage would like to have something to say about all this … spoiling their Leesburg neighbors hopes of a playoff berth!
Northern Region (Final)
Division 6
1, Oakton 34.4
2, Westfield 30.0
3, Chantilly 29.8
4, West Sringfield 29.3
5, Woodson 27.7
6, Annandale 27.6
7, Herndon 26.3
8, South County 26.2
——————–
9, West Potomac 26.1
10, Robinson 25.4
11, Langley 25.2
12, Lake Braddock 24.4
13, Fairfax 23.3
14, T.C. Williams 22.3
15, Centreville 19.5
Division 5
1, Edison 33.4
2, Stone Bridge 32.2
3, Mount Vernon 28.0
4, Madison 26.1
5, Yorktown 26.0
6, Washington-Lee 22.3
7, TJ 22.1
8, Lee 21.5
———————–
9, Marshall 21.2
10, Wakefield 20.9
11, South Lakes 19.0
12, Hayfield 18.7
13, Falls Church 18.2
14, McLean 17.1
15, Stuart 16.7
Region II (One week to play)
Division 4
1, Broad Run 29.1
2, Potomac Falls 28.1
3, James Wood 25.1
4, Louisa 23.9
——————-
5, Sherando 23.3
6, Loudoun County 22.9
7, Orange 22.1
8, Heritage 21.6
9. Park View 19.0
10, Brentsvile 16.0
11, Charlottesville 14.9
Division 3
1, Handley 28.1
2, Monticello 26.9
3, Briar Woods 24.6
4, Millbrook 21.5
——————
5, Skyline 21.1
6, Western Albemarle 18.1
7, Fluvanna 16.7
8, Dominion 15.3
8, Warren County 15.3
10, Kettle Run 14.8
11, Freedom 14.0
12, Central 13.7
13, William Monroe 12.3
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